If you earn a payroll check the payroll tax holiday within the Bush tax cut package could give you a two percent pay hike. Lawmakers view the payroll tax holiday being a financial stimulus on the assumption that individuals will spend that additional money. But some economists say that customers will probably conserve more of that money than the politicians hope. If all will go as prepared, folks really should never need to obtain a personal cash loan. Resource for this article – Inside the payroll tax holiday and how to have a happy one by MoneyBlogNewz.
Payroll tax holiday: economic stimulus?
The payroll tax holiday proposal rolls back the employees’ share of the payroll tax from 6.2 percent to 4.2 % on income up to $106,000. Firms like Deutche Bank revised the predictions for 2011 from 3.3 % to 4.1 percent with economic growth after the tax deal had been announced. Here’s the math behind that reasoning:
Wages and salaries in the U.S. in 2010 total $6.44 trillion. That figure grew nearly 5 percent in the second and third quarter. If that rate continues, wages and salaries will total about $6.75 trillion a year from now. Deutche Bank estimates about 85 percent of total wages and salaries are dinged by the payroll tax. A 2 % reduction in that tax puts $115 billion back in workers’ wallets. Based on the current personal savings rate of 5.8 %, $108 billion — 0.7 percent of estimated 2011 GDP — would be spent. Therefore, 3.3 + 0.7 = 4.1 percent.
There is the Permanent Income Hypothesis to consider
Most are saying that there is too much optimism. This would be from Deutche Bank. Since informed consumers will realize the 2 % raise will only last just a little when, suggests John Carney at CNBC, the payroll tax holiday won’t increase spending that much. There is a name for this made up by economists. Permanent Income Hypothesis is that name. Future earnings are what people spend based off of. Current take-home pay doesn’t do that. The financial crisis changed people. Before it, people spent more than they earned and wouldn’t save at all. After that, the financial crisis came. Now people spend less and conserve more because expectations for the future are diminished.
What you are able to do with your payroll tax holiday
What should you do with that payroll tax holiday raise? Spending it isn’t the suggestion SmartMoney gives. Putting it in a Roth IRA, a traditional IRA or a 401(k) is the suggestion. The money will then be worth something. It will still be worth something after 2012 when the payroll tax holiday ends. You might end up just paying for the health care costs that are expected to rise next year. Buying new appliances is a new option. You could save hundreds of dollars in a few years with more energy efficient home appliances.
Citations
SmartMoney
smartmoney.com/personal-finance/taxes/what-to-do-with-a-payroll-tax-cut/#ixzz17WrUvmtU
CNBC
cnbc.com/id/40553481
Business Insider
businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-explains-why-the-payroll-tax-holiday-is-a-game-changer-and-could-push-gdp-to-41-2010-12

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